Five years ago Trump led a coup against the United States of America. Judge J. Michael Luttig, a renowned former judge, said that in 2028 it is “abundantly clear that [Trump] will hold onto the office at any cost, including America’s ruin.” The unknown is will Trump be leading a military coup or fleeing one on his Qatari jet?
Luttig, in his December 2025 Atlantic article titled, “President for Life,” offered a long list why Trump won’t leave despite the constitutional two-term limit including 2020’s election interference and the January 6th insurrection. As Timothy Snyder wrote in On Tyranny, “A failed coup is usually practice for a successful one.”
I add these recent events as more evidence of Trump’s intent. Alan Dershowitz in an oval office meeting advised Trump on third term options. Trump said the quiet part out loud that “we’re going to do the inauguration in that building [Ballroom].” Trump invaded Venezuela and threatened other countries, showing Trump considers himself not a King of the United States but an Emperor of “our hemisphere.” Emperors do not peacefully transfer power.
Judge Luttig did not address how Trump would stay. Trump’s competitive authoritarian regime tells us – third term or military coup. In these regimes elections are held but the regime uses its power to rig them. Steven Levitsky and Lucan A Way explain it thus: “like a soccer match in which the referees, the groundskeepers, and the scorekeepers work for one team to sabotage its rival.” Marc Elias, a leading voting rights activist warned that election rigging is in full swing and to expect a tsunami of election subversion in 2026 and 2028.
It is likely the Court will allow Trump to run. Despite declining popularity Trump might win considering his competitive authoritarianism advantage. If Trump wins its checkmate. If the Court finds its conscience ruling the Third Term unconstitutional, or Trump loses or disputes the election, expect a coup. William Kristol, in the January 2, 2026 Bulwark newsletter gave a 20% chance that in 2026 Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, run for a third term, clearly signal that he won’t hand over power in 2028 and that it won’t be clear pro-democracy forces will prevail.
In 2020, Michael Flynn suggested suspending the Constitution using the military to seize the election machines and hold a new election. General Milley so feared Trump would manufacture an emergency to retain power after the election, that he planned to defend against it.
A military coup requires indoctrinated troops willing to shoot students as at Kent State in 1970, or follow orders like Lieutenant Calley’s Platoon at My Lai in 1968, and be without shame when claiming the Nuremberg defense in 1946 – “we were only following orders.” Manipulation of the military and ICE is well underway.
First, you fire the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, other top military leaders, the DoD Inspector General, and the top JAGs for the Army, Navy and Air Force. Hegseth called the JAG’s removal “roadblocks to orders that are given by a commander in chief.”
Second, you change DoD to Department of War. Hegseth told generals that we won’t fight by rules that tie the hands of our troops, but use “common sense and maximum lethality for war fighters.”
Third, you desensitize troops to obeying illegal orders by making them follow illegal orders. You send them to Portland, Los Angeles, D.C. and Chicago to patrol our streets. You have them blow up little boats coming from Venezuela killing everyone aboard based on a pretextual war against alleged drug traffickers. Angus King said “that’s a stone-cold war crime. It’s also murder.” Once blowing up boats is normalized, you give them an illegal and unconstitutional order for regime change. And they dutifully comply.
READ: Renee Good Was Killed by the Kind of State Violence Our Founding Fathers Warned Against
Trump signaled that he expects his orders, lawful or not to be followed. When Members of Congress released a video explaining to the military that the law requires them to refuse illegal orders the president called them traitors who should be hanged. Trump’s directive was heard loud and clear. Soon after General Caine was advised by his military lawyer that if a commander determines an order is unlawful he should not object but request retirement. Former JAGs immediately criticised this advice, for instilling a “culture of silence and lack of accountability.”
Fourth, you bribe the military. During the shutdown the military was paid while others were not. Elie Mystal writing in The Nation on December 9 called Trump’s $1,776 warrior dividend “one of the most dangerous things I’ve ever heard Trump say,” noting dictators buy their military’s loyalty by making them beholden to the dictator, not the state.
Fifth, you teach the military through ICE’s example how to treat the “enemy from within.” You kidnap people off the street, violently handle peaceful protestors and shoot to death parents dropping their kids off at school like they did to Silverio Villegas-Gonzalez.
The ACLU described ICE as a paramilitary group “intended to be accountable to the president not the people,” just like the German SS was answerable only to Hitler. ICE’s budget now exceeds the military budgets of most countries. It is running a $100,000,000 recruiting campaign aimed at gun rights advocates, military enthusiasts and UFC fight attendees, a malleable group.
ProPublica called ICE unfettered and unaccountable and reported that national security officials worry ICE could be wielded against anyone Trump decides. Nothing supports the report more than ICE’s killing on January 7 in Minneapolis of an unarmed 37-year-old American citizen and mother of three, Renee Nicole Good, and Trump’s jumping to the shooter’s immediate defense. But as America watched the video of the shooting we all thought, to paraphrase Angus King, “it was a stone-cold killing. It’s also murder.”
In 2020, Jeffrey Clark suggested Trump just remain in power after the election claiming election fraud. When violent protests erupt, invoke the Insurrection Act, declare an emergency and then being empowered and protected by your military you are “President for Life.” In 2028 Trump will own a military and a paramilitary.
Snyder said Trump set up future terrorist attacks and pandemics by hollowing out governmental agencies like the FBI, CIA and DHS. Snyder also suggested an “imagined emergency,” maybe claiming the FBI stopped an imaginary Antifa attack. Or Trump could stage a false-flag emergency as some historians suggest the Reichstag fire was. Or, he can attack Mexican cartels in Mexico, which Trump already suggested, sparking a war on our border.
Judge Luttig said only the “American people, in whom ultimate power resides under the Constitution of the United States,” can stop Trump. Robert Reich showed us how to use our power in his January 1, 2026 Substack listing “10 Crucial Things You Can Do in 2026.” I would add we can each contribute our own simple thing as Baltazar Enriquez did in Chicago by blowing a whistle. And as the Minneapolis shooting shows, we must keep our cell phone cameras ready to record this regime’s terror.
