Tomorrow, Donald Trump will take the oath of office, and the MAGA 2.0 era will officially begin. This week, the transition really kicked into gear with the new Congress sworn in and confirmation hearings already taking place. The news cycle is speeding up to a breakneck pace once again, and while no one can predict what happens next, I think it’s safe to say we’re in for even more turbulence this time around.
Since the election, I’ve talked less about the incoming regime and more about how we can prepare ourselves and our communities for it. That was an intentional choice as we’ve all been readying ourselves for this moment. But this week we’re going to turn our attention back to the MAGA Right, and their lame-duck president Donald Trump.
As of right now, Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from running for president again. He might attempt to change that, but given his advanced age, I can’t see him spending actual political will on it. On the one hand, this frees Trump up some because he doesn’t have to worry about another election. But it also means that the battle for his MAGA successor starts now.
I’m not the only one thinking along these lines. Both E.J. Dionne and Chris Hayes have called Trump a lame-duck president as well. There’s a clear endpoint to Trump’s second time in office. This reality limits Trump’s political capital and will be limited further should voters do the usual course correction in the next midterm elections.
No one is more aware of this than Steve Bannon and Elon Musk, who are already fighting amongst themselves over the future of MAGA. They are self-appointed leaders of two competing schools of thought within MAGA: Bannon as an America-first nationalist and Musk as a neo-reactionary tech overlord. Bannon came in hot, calling Musk a racist and threatening to have him kicked out of Trump’s orbit by Inauguration Day, only to backtrack and say that wouldn’t be possible since Musk had bought his way into Trump’s inner circle.
Making them fight one another is always a good strategy, and both Musk and Bannon are egomaniacs who love attention just as much as the man they swear fealty to. Neither one of them would succeed in taking Trump on right now, but MAGA’s future is an open question. Something they both seem to realize.
Currently, Musk and Bannon are fighting for Trump’s favor, but how long before that fight spirals into a battle for coalition control? Who else will get dragged into the fray? Will Trump’s cult of followers align themselves with Musk, Bannon, or someone else entirely like Donald Jr.? These questions will become more relevant as the weeks pass and Trump’s term wanes.
Republican electeds will start to think along these lines, too. Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, barely eeked out keeping his gavel, and only with Trump’s support. The House majority is razor-thin, fragile, and already prone to in-fighting. Trump’s ability to keep them in line should start to fade after the midterms especially once GOP electeds start scheduling trips to Iowa and New Hampshire.
There’s no denying Trump 2.0 will be a brutal period for America, and strategically, we’re in a weaker position than we were eight years ago. I’m bracing myself for a smash-and-grab of Trump’s enriching himself and his benefactors at our expense and for the harm he’ll bring to marginalized communities and the vengeance he’ll go after his opponents with. But I also know that Trump’s reign of terror won’t last forever. The countdown clock starts the moment he takes the oath tomorrow.
This is an excerpt from Ctrl Alt-Right Delete, a newsletter produced in partnership with COURIER — a civic media company. It was republished with the author’s permission. Subscribe HERE.
